ZIMBABWE'S TURNING POINT! (Mutumwa Mawere!)

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By Mutumwa D. Mawere


Last updated: 09/24/2007 10:01:20


SEPTEMBER 20, 2007 will remain etched in Zimbabwe’s unfolding history as a historic day in which the people of Zimbabwe through their parliament put in legislative motion forces for which there may be no turning back.




Although the significance of the day in defining the fate of Zimbabwe has not been fully digested, it is a moment pregnant with implications for the country and marks a significant and decisive turning point.



On this day, the Constitution of Zimbabwe Bill Number 18 was unanimously passed by both Zanu PF and MDC legislators and yet barely a year ago, such a development would have been unthinkable.



The harmonisation project mooted and authored by President Mugabe last year was condemned even by the same people who now embrace it. However, the object of my article is not to dwell on the past but to fully unmask the nature, content and context of the secretive deal that SADC through President Mbeki has brokered in the quest for a lasting solution to the Zimbabwean crisis.



The bill that was passed unanimously by 111 members of Parliament who were present or 74% of the House seeks to harmonise next year’s presidential, parliamentary and local government elections. No-one, including Tsholotsho MP Professor Moyo (Indep) who was not part of the Mbeki negotiations voted against the bill.



As the country and the world at large tries to digest this development, it is instructive that no such deal could be realised without a resolution of the fate of President Mugabe.



In the absence of a formal confirmation about what has been agreed between the parties, the subtext of the deal is instructive and there was no better person to expose to the nation that President Mugabe’s days are numbered and an agreement has been reached that he will step down as President of Zanu PF in December 2007, the same month as a new President of ANC is to be elected, than Vice President Joseph Msika who in the excitement of the moment gave a clue to the fate of not only him but President Mugabe.



This is what Vice President Msika was reported to have said amid resounding applause: "May we keep it like that. Never ever should we fail to love our nation! We should put the love of our people first. This is the legacy I want to leave with you. As you know, I have come a long way; it’s time for me to depart. Work together as a nation."



When a person of Vice President Msika’s age (older than Mugabe) talks of leaving a legacy and for the first time announcing that it is time for him to depart then you know that a Tsugabe has taken place. Vice President Msika is on record having said that he will not leave President Mugabe in the trenches and would rather die in office than surrender before the successful completion of what he describes as the national democratic revolution.
If Vice President Msika is retiring, then it is evident that President Mugabe is also retiring which explains why the MDC formations would in their collective minds choose to align themselves with a project that eliminates Mugabe from the scene while providing a roadmap to elections presided over by someone other than Mugabe.



To the extent that the SADC leadership was satisfied about the progress reported by President Mbeki at the Lusaka summit, it follows that the forthcoming Extraordinary Congress of Zanu PF will be tasked with choosing the new leadership of the party. If Mugabe and Msika had not accepted to step down, there would have been no need to convert a Zanu PF Conference into an extraordinary Congress in December.



Mugabe and Msika’s terms as party President and Vice President, respectively, were due to expire in 2009, creating a problem if the presidential and parliamentary elections were not harmonised and hence the proposal by Mugabe to have a transitional process that would have extended the Presidential term to 2010 to allow Zanu PF to elect its leadership in 2009 who would have led the party in the elections. This is now history and it is evident that Mugabe and Msika will not seek to renew their terms in December.



Under this construction, Zanu PF will choose a new president and two vice presidents in December assuming that the framework of the ZANU and ZAPU unity accord is still in place. It is expected that Vice President Mujuru whose mandate in the party was also due to expire in 2009, will offer herself as a candidate for the presidency, leaving the party to elect two other individuals for the presidential posts.



With respect to the national leadership question, President Mugabe and Vice President Msika will finish their terms in March 2008 and will not seek to renew their terms. Although Zanu PF would have wanted the elections to be held in March, it appears that an agreement has been reached to have a transitional six-month period after the exit of Mugabe to prepare for the harmonised elections.



The U-turn by MDC on the harmonisation project and Professor Moyo’s active support of the constitutional changes exposes the fact that Mugabe has agreed not to be a candidate in the 2008 elections otherwise the outcome would have been as predictable as night comes after daylight.



It is no longer debatable whether Mugabe is a factor or not, it is clear that the MDC has taken the gamble that with Mugabe out, the chances of unseating Zanu PF through an electoral process are higher. Informed by this belief, MDC leaders were prepared to ditch their NCA colleagues who have not appreciated that the real objective of making noises on the constitution was to remove Mugabe. Now that this has been achieved through the efforts of SADC, the NCA and other non-state actors including their external supporters have been left guessing about the way forward.



President Mbeki appears to have understood the Zimbabwean political quagmire to allow him to persuade President Mugabe to step down without him feeling that he has been pushed out. To the opposition, their acceptance of the deal exposes the narrowness of their agenda. It appears that all that was required was for president Mugabe to agree to step down without reversing any of the policies that have combined to exacerbate the economic meltdown.



It is clear that MDC has accepted that the land reform is irreversible and the only way in which compensation for the dispossessed white farmers will be realised is through the intervention of the British government. Equally, the allegations of human and property rights violations did not feature in the deal structure.



What is evident is that the MDC has accepted the position of the government of Zimbabwe that sanctions are the root cause of the crisis and Mugabe will only step down on condition that sanctions are lifted and the indigenisation and economic empowerment program as envisaged in the bill before Parliament is implemented.



It is clear that President Mugabe has succeeded in writing the agenda for his successors. To the extent that the removal of Mugabe was the primary preoccupation of the UK and USA governments, African heads of state and government are united in asking for the lifting of sanctions and in the reopening of dialogue between Zimbabwe and the UK on the unresolved land question. By brokering the Mugabe exit deal, President Mbeki and his African colleagues will naturally be angered if new conditions like restoration of the rule of law, democracy and respect for property and human rights were to be asked for.



By agreeing to this deal, the MDC faces a great risk of alienating its traditional supporters who were hoping for a radical change in economic and political direction. The proposed constitutional changes may not guarantee the demise of Zanu PF as an institution because the deal brokered by President Mbeki presents Zanu PF with an important propaganda weapon.



For the first time, Zanu PF can say that it has been vindicated after more than eight years of what they classify as extended moments of infantile disorder instigated by imperialist and neo-colonialist forces. To the extent that the MDC has been convinced to accept the leadership of African heads of state in resolving the crisis, it no longer has any legitimacy as a force to negotiate with Mugabe’s outspoken critics in the West.



My prediction is that Vice President Mujuru will emerge as the president of Zanu PF in December in as much as ANC is looking for a female successor to President Mbeki. It is likely that one of the vice presidents will come from the former ZAPU and the other from possibly Manicaland.



Under this deal, Mugabe is expected to manage the transition in the party and government under the guise that the national democratic revolution requires revolutionary and committed leaders and the country cannot be trusted to elect such leaders without guidance. It is instructive that the ANC faces the same challenges as Zanu PF for different reasons. December will certainly be an interesting month for Zimbabwe and South Africa.



Time will tell whether President Mugabe will disappear in the political twilight and honour the deal brokered by President Mbeki and now accepted by MDC or will find an excuse for changing the goal posts. This may explain why President Mbeki has asked all the players to decide the future of the country in camera by relegating citizens to spectators in the unfolding political drama that will continue to make news headlines.



Mutumwa Mawere's weekly column appears on New Zimbabwe.com every Monday. You can contact him at: mmawere@global.co.za

"Zanu-PF uses of food as a powerful political weapon!" Mr Eddie Cross.

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Eddie Cross

September 21, 2007

WHEN the struggle against PF-Zapu was at its height in the mid 80's the Zanu-PF
regime here used the distribution of food as a political weapon for the
first time. I recall it well because we were in a severe drought and there
was widespread shortage of food supplies from traditional sources. FiveBrigade was doing its thing in Matabeleland and although we knew all was
not well, we had scant idea of the full extent of that genocidal campaign.

In that year, the government cut off supplies from State controlled sources
and effectively said to the Ndebele people. "If you continue to support
Zapu, one way or another you will die."

This was no idle threat - they killed an estimated 20 000 people in the campaign, more than had died in the liberation of the country over many years and they controlled the basic staple foods almost completely.

They did this by erecting roadblocks on all roads leading into the rural
areas in Matabeleland; these had instructions to stop the entry of media
practitioners and also all forms of basic foods. Relatives in the urban
areas and in South Africa could not reach their families with aid when
requested and no publicity of the operation was allowed.

In 1987, after five years of murder, mayhem and hardship, Zapu capitulated and
was absorbed into Zanu-PF. There was little else they could do if their
people were to survive. The record of this savage political campaign is
published in the report "Breaking the Silence" now in book form.

At that time there was no threat to the hegemony of Zanu-PF in Zimbabwe.
They dominated the political scene and held an overwhelming majority in
Parliament. Mugabe wanted more - he wanted a one-party state. He could not
tolerate any opposition.

Since then many new opposition voices have come and gone. One by one they
were eliminated by effective but less bloody techniques - infiltration,
subversion, bribery, threats and a media black-out with propaganda. When
necessary they used violence - targeted and ruthless, or their economic
muscle to force leadership to leave the field or retire hurt.

Then came the MDC, a new labour based political movement with strong grass-
roots support. Initially confident that the same lethal mix that had poisoned the ground for opposition parties in the past would do the job again, Zanu-PF simply ignored the threat leaving it to the security agency that held responsibility, to "fix" the problem.

When they finally woke up the morning after the referendum in February 2000,
they suddenly knew they were in a real fight - this time for power itself.
MDC had won the referendum even after those responsible for the vote had
ensured that it would be rigged by 15 per cent and had assured them that
they would win the vote quite easily.

The response by the regime to this electoral shock was predictable. Mr.
Mugabe gave a vintage performance on national television saying that he
accepted the decision of the people, but behind that cold façade was a
ruthless and cruel determination to use every tool in the Zanu-PF tool-kit
against these new usurpers.

In the intervening seven years, Zanu-PF has been forced to gradually intensify
its campaign to retain power, in the process losing its democratic
credentials and its standing in the world community. Now Zanu-PF faces its most
serious threat since 1980. South Africa has forced the next election back to
March 2008 and the SADC is demanding that Zimbabwe fulfills its obligations
as a member and adheres to the SADC norms for free and fair elections.

The strategy evolved by those doing this sort of thing in Zanu-PF and
government itself, called for acceptance of changes to the actual voting
procedures on the day, but was intended to deliver a broken, bloodied MDC
and a radically changed electoral pattern to the poll. So we have seen
renewed attacks on MDC structures - across the country, renewed use of
imprisonment, false accusations, torture and savage beatings, all designed
to drive activists out of the country and to intimidate those who remain.

Then there were operations such as Murambatsvina in 2005, designed to close down
business in urban areas, take over major export industries and drive out of
the country another 2 to 3 million urban inhabitants. This is well under way
and I estimate that half a million urban residents have already left the
country for other countries - most going to South Africa. Millions more are
preparing to go and will move as soon as their plans are made.

As part of this integrated strategy the regime here has increased control
over basic food supplies. They are systematically denying the urban areas
food - there is now no maize meal, no rice, no bread, no meat or beans, in
urban areas. People are scavenging for food and the struggle to feed
families and the elderly is becoming well nigh impossible. Couple this to
water rationing or no water at all, water borne disease and fuel at Z$400
000 a litre and the local mini busses charging Z$100 000 per trip to town
and you have a situation that is simply intolerable.

This situation is being created deliberately - fuel is supposed to sell at Z$350 per litre - the actual street price is Z$2 million for five litres. Maize meal is supposed to be sold at Z$5 000 a kilo - the actual price is Z$25 000 a kilo. Meat is supposed to sell at Z$240 000 a kilo but the market price is not less than Z$1 million a kilo. The real rate of
inflation for the ordinary worker is probably about 20 000 percent and his
wages and income are rising slowly - controlled by government.

The plan was that by the time of the election in March 2008, the cities
would be a shadow of their previous state, population down by half and those
that remained, hungry and dependent either on Zanu-PF employers or the State
for survival. The MDC would also be reduced to a shell and a broken one at
that! In the rural areas it was Zanu-PF's calculation that their hold over
traditional leaders plus food control would deliver the vote.

This use of a mix of manipulation of the vote using the voters roll, the
delimitation process in determining voting districts and then exercising
physical control over voters on the day, has enlisted the support of the
donor community who pour hundreds of millions of dollars into humanitarian
assistance each year. The agencies involved allow themselves to be co-opted
by the State for this purpose by only doing what they are allowed to do in
this field and supplying food through official channels. NGOs are seen as
extensions of government liable to be denied access to communities at the
whim of local political authorities. Often Zanu -PF is allowed to direct
food aid operations. The UN Agencies are all guilty of such actions.

Breaking the hold of Zanu-PF over the electoral system is only one half of
the equation as we seek to secure our rights as a people. Their hands must
also be taken off the price controls and the availability of food and jobs.
If we are going to get anything like a free and fair vote in 2008, this
latter aspect, which is very much under the control of foreign donors and
investors, needs urgent attention.

CRUMBLING ZIMBABWE RIPE FOR CORRUPTION: WATCHDOG!

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(The picture deceives. The shelves you see in that picture are no longer like you see there!)

Crumbling Zimbabwe ripe for corruption: watchdog

 

Zimbabwe's failing economy and collapsing services have provided an environment ripe for graft, with the impoverished country's woes facilitating an ever-worsening slide towards corruption.

 

Despite setting up a local graft-busting body in 2004, Zimbabwe appears to be losing the battle against corruption, with President Robert Mugabe's economic policies seen to promote corrupt behaviour, according to a leading watchdog.

 

In 2003 Transparency International, an organisation monitoring global corruption, ranked Zimbabwe 77th most corrupt out of 130 countries evaluated. By 2005, Zimbabwe had slid to 130th of 163 countries.

 

"Zimbabwe is ranked 130th amongst 163 countries and it has become very corrupt compared to others," Killron Dembe, executive director of TI in Zimbabwe, told AFP.

The most recent corruption index did not bode well for foreign investment in the crisis-ridden country, Dembe said.

 

He said the country's "economic malaise" had increased levels of corruption among a population burdened by steep prices of essentials and food shortages.

 

"When you have people who have become billionaires overnight and are considered as role models, you have a challenge because this becomes part of the country's culture," he said.

Dembe said Mugabe's economic policies were exacerbating the situation, despite his anti-graft crusade yielding arrests of senior government officials.

 

"Zimbabwe needs proper policies to end corruption. Distorted policy regimes tend to promote corruption," Dembe said.

 

"When you have different exchange rates and different fuel prices, that promotes corruption."

Since August last year, the authorities have kept the local unit at 250 Zimbabwe dollars against the greenback, yet on the parallel market it has slid to 23,000 dollars.

 

Zimbabwe is facing an economic meltdown with inflation of over 7,500 percent and unemployment above 80 percent.

 

In a 2006 meeting of the ruling ZANU-PF Mugabe acknowledged corruption had reached the party's upper echelons, saying he wanted to cleanse the central committee amid "many cases" of abuse of authority.

 

However the country's Anti-Corruption Commission, set up with the assistance of TI, has little to show from its fight against corruption.

 

"They have done nothing tangible. There is nothing visible," Dembe said of the commission, whose chairman is appointed by Mugabe.

 

"The commission is answerable to the executive ... It's limited in terms of independence and its major challenges are resources and capacity," Dembe said.

 

"The question is what is happening on the ground... there is no visible action taking place?"

One of the few to be convicted was Charles Nherera, chief executive of public bus company ZUPCO, who was jailed for accepting a US 85,000 dollar bribe from a Harare businesman whom he awarded with a contract for 75 buses.

 

Former finance minister Chris Kuruneri was acquitted in July after being accused of smuggling money abroad to build a house in South Africa.

 

Johannes Tomana, deputy chairman of the commission said the public had reported 9,000 graft cases since 2006.

 

Of these the commission was probing 5,000 cases, out of which only 27 had been tried in court "and we secured 22 convictions," state media quoted Tomana as saying.

"Nobody is immune," he said, urging whistle-blowers to report corruption as the public was protected by law and would not be victimised by those under probe.

 

But the opposition remains sceptical, with Movement for Democratic Change spokesman Nelson Chamisa saying the graft battle was a "big joke".

 

"Just look around, corruption is being administered from various centres of power. All state institutions are oozing with corrupt tendencies." he added.

 

 

Peace and Tranquility???

Peace and Tranquility???

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